print | email

Study group, outline for the spring of 2012
Artur Davis
The Making of the President 2012: A Real-Time Look at Americans Selecting their Leader
Thursdays, 4:15-5:45pm
L166
This study group will conduct an eight-week study of the climactic weeks in the race for the Republican nomination, and at the same time, the early maneuvering of President Obama’s reelection team as they prepare to defend their record. Participants in this study group will focus on the weekly developments in the campaign, but always with an eye toward the broader context around this election. We will pay special attention to five questions: (1) what is the country’s mood in an election that is arguably a referendum on how the Obama Administration handled the Great Recession? (2) What is the mood of the Republican Party as it chooses between an establishment front-runner with a moderate history and a movement conservative? (3) Is the press getting it right and providing the coverage Americans deserve of the candidates and their records? (4) How will an incumbent president with a challenging economy and a polarized country make his case for reelection? (5) How is politics being affected by the surge of money in campaigns and what can we do about it?
The virtue and the dilemma of a case study in real time is that events will dictate part of our path. Depending on how the race progresses, we may examine the vice presidential selection process or ponder how the Republican race came to an end; alternatively, we may end up assessing whether we are headed for the first deadlocked convention in the modern era. We will certainly have occasion to discuss how campaigns are reacting to the unexpected, and we will do one case study exercise in the critical skill of crisis management.
One other word about our methodology: our goal is to examine this election from the perspectives of strategists considering the broad political horizon, and tacticians forced to confront specific, narrow choices in real time. My goal is to encourage the Democrats among us to think hard about how the Republican Party can make its case and the Republicans among us to think hard about how President Obama can be successful. The goal is not to reduce politics to a game, but to remind an audience of future leaders how politics drive substance and how the same challenges keep repeating themselves. Out task is not to make a value judgment about whose agenda is right but to understand, and appreciate, that all of our leaders will confront similar obstacles in governing and being successful.
Session I: February 16
Overview: Focus on Republicans: Is the Right in Chaos?
The opening study group will occur during a temporary lull in the Republican race, after the important Florida primary, and before end of the month contests in Michigan and Arizona. We will take a look backward at how we reached this point in the presidential race. I will ask participants to examine the question of how the Republican race has apparently settled down to a two man fight. Could another candidate have made the finals? Why has Mitt Romney, the presumed favorite and overwhelming establishment favorite, struggled? How has Newt Gingrich, a candidate with an unusual array of baggage, survived and prospered? Is this the best Republicans do and what does this choice say about the party?
Session 2: February 23
Overview: Focus on Obama: Defending the Change
This study group will focus on President Obama’s standing as he prepares to defend his record. We will spend time discussing the President’s strategy going forward.  I will ask students to assume the role of campaign strategist and make the best 30-second case for why the President should be reelected. I will ask students to also do the reverse, and make the best case for his defeat.  I expect that we will focus on how President Obama has handled the resistance of Republicans to his policies, and how effectively he has sold some of his signature initiatives like healthcare reform and his jobs plan. By way of historical context, we will also raise the question of why incumbent presidents tend to get reelected. In the postwar era, only three incumbents that have sought reelection have been defeated, and all three were even or only slightly behind in the final week.
Session 3: March 1
Overview: Money Matters
This study group will begin with an update on the progress of the Republican race in the aftermath of the first primaries in a month, in Arizona and Michigan. The bulk of the session will be devoted to an exploration of how big money has come to dominate presidential politics. We will discuss the Supreme Court’s ruling in Citizens United v. FEC, and its impact on the so-called Super PACS. I will ask students to focus on the following: Is too much money corrupting presidential politics? Is there a better way to regulate the system? Just how much does money matter?
Session 4: March 8
Overview: Is This Any Way to Pick a President?
The study group will examine the results of Super Tuesday, March 6, when seven states will hold primaries, including a major battleground, Ohio, and an assortment of Southern states. We will assess the state of the race, and whether any Republican candidate has a decisive edge at this point. If the race is essentially over, we will spend some time assessing how it came to an end and how the winner asserted himself. Then, we will examine the process of nominating presidents, which has remained remarkably stable now for 36 years, and ask whether there is a better way. Would one national primary make more sense? What about regional primaries?  Do party leaders have enough of a say in the process? Students will be invited to offer their own solutions for the 2016 process based on what they see as the current shortcomings.
Session 5: March 29
Overview: The Role of the Press: A View From the Trenches
After an update on the state of the race, this study group will examine the role the press has played in this election cycle, with a panel of journalists that includes Matt Bai of the New York Times, one of the most experienced presidential campaign reporters in the country, and a 2001 IOP fellow. We will ask our guests to examine specific topics relevant to 2012. Has the press been fair in its coverage of controversies like Romney’s financial history, Gingrich’s personal baggage? Should candidates like Rick Santorum and Ron Paul have received more coverage after strong early showings? Is there anything to the persistent conservative belief that President Obama has received favorable treatment from the press? Is there a liberal bias in the news media as many conservatives allege? What does the press tend to miss in these campaigns, and how can the media do a better job of covering these races?
Session 6: April 5
Overview: The Art of Crisis Management: “Sir, We Need to Talk to You”
This study group will examine how presidential campaigns confront crises and unexpected developments along the way. We will deploy two hypothetical case studies and the group will be divided into two teams: one group will focus on a presidential candidate confronting a sex scandal related to allegations that he harassed two former staffers and had an extramarital affair with another; the other group will focus on a candidate confronting questions about his role as a CEO at a major company that has come under legal scrutiny. Students will be asked to play the role of campaign operatives who are debating how to handle these developments. At the end of the exercise, each team will give an assessment of how the other did, and how it handled the different turns in the case study scenario.
Session 7: April 12
Overview: Previewing the General: If the Election were Held Today…
By now, the Republican nominating race will either be over or in the midst of a protracted fight. We will also have a stronger sense of whether the economic rebound has continued or whether the recovery has slowed, as it did last year. We will spend this session previewing the fall race and assessing who seems to have the advantage. Depending on the dynamics of the campaign, we may take an early look at the vice presidential selection process and how the Republican nominee may go about handling it.
Session 8: April 19
Overview: What Has This Campaign Taught Us About Politics and About America?
In this last session, we will take a more systemic look at the shape of modern politics. We will ask a series of questions about the nature of presidential leadership in the modern era. Why is it so tough for presidents to govern and remain popular? Why has the country become so polarized?