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Study Group for Steven Schrage                                                        Mondays 4:15-5:45 pm
                                                                                                            FDR

2012 Politics and Policy’s Impact on Your World: Issues and Debates that Will Shape Students’ Futures, Global Markets and Even World History

All presidential election years are potential turning points. Yet a nearly perfect storm of global and U.S. political, economic and foreign policy challenges means that 2012 elections will set policy directions that will not only shape the world students confront for the next four years, but potentially for decades to come. A global economic crisis and continued stagnant economic growth along with growing U.S. debt will force candidates to debate the shape, scope and role of the federal government—and key issues such as Social Security, Medicare, defense spending, housing policy, student loans, immigration, and taxes—in fundamental ways they have not done in decades. Amidst pressure for longer-term austerity, political leaders must simultaneously seek solutions to prevent what many experts fear could be a “lost generation” of recent graduates facing a lack of good jobs. The impact of these discussions will be felt far beyond our borders as candidates debate America’s future role in the world while we potentially draw down from two wars started in the wake of 9/11, deal with a possible second major financial crisis growing in Europe, consider options for addressing a nuclear-armed Iran amid an “Arab Spring” and consider various paths for engagement or economic confrontation with a rising China. These debates will be shaped by the unprecedented political volatility of the last six years—with Democratic and Republican “wave” elections occurring a mere 24 months apart in 2010 and 2012—and the rise of two populist movements—the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street--whose fates may again rapidly shift the course of the 2012 debate and the agenda it sets for the country.

Over the course of the semester, President Obama and his Republican challengers will be setting out their proposed new courses for American and the world’s prosperity and security, providing us a unique, real-time opportunity to explore these issues.  As young voters, few will have more at stake than college students. This study group will utilize the instructor’s experience: working at the center of recent Congressional and Washington debates and crafting bipartisan compromises for the Senate’s deciding vote; serving on the core policy staff of several leading presidential candidates and Members of Congress; working on early White House policies and transitions; leading the office of the first Senator elected in the 2010/Tea Party Wave as he (a Republican) became the post popular political figure in the bluest “Democratic” state; chairing bipartisan think-tank work on the economic crisis; and leading international political processes. This experience and history of bipartisan ties and contacts will be used to bring in key figures involved in shaping these debates and break down the issues and dynamics at hand. Through this study group, students will get bipartisan and expert perspectives and the chance to interact with key players to analyze the issues that will shape their 2012 decision and the world they will enter after graduation.

Session 1: How 2012 Politics and Policy Debates Will Change Your World—Overview of the Study Group and Critical Issues for Students.

Having served in the heart of Presidential headquarters policy teams during the last two open Presidential elections as well as in key Congressional, White House, State Department and international policymaking roles, I can tell you without a doubt that how policies get made in Presidential campaigns is unlike anywhere else in the world—and nowhere can it be more unpredictable or have a greater impact. Issues fly fast and furious and the entire focus of Presidential or pivotal Congressional races (and sometimes, therefore, the course of history) can turn on a dime, driven by unexpected events at home and abroad that can range from terrorist attacks to the threat of global financial collapse. Often with virtually no time to react, campaigns must make rapid decisions on ways to meld winning politics and policy.  How candidates and the small core campaign teams (often operating around the clock with little sleep) react to these headlines and wider challenges will often not only determine who wins the election, controls the government or become perhaps the world’s most powerful leader--but also the very direction that a President or Congress feels compelled to lead that world.

This first session will provide an overview of critical issues 2012 is poised to decide that will alter students lives:  the end of two wars—and the potential start of another as Iran heads towards nuclear weapons, the fate of job prospects millions of students face in our struggling economy, meeting the challenge of a rising China. Just as importantly, it will seek students’ input on what they believe are most important to them as we bring in speakers intimately involved in campaigns to address their questions and concerns. This session with also provide an introduction of the fellow and his background on this topic—including serving on the policy teams for current top Presidential contender’s Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich; guiding the shift from campaign positions to U.S. policy on two White House office transition teams; engaging in negotiations between President Obama, Scott Brown and top Congressional leaders after the Massachusetts election altered the course of national policy in 2010; and leading key international efforts with major U.S. political ramifications in Colin Powell’s State Department and among the world’s top economies after 9/11 (including heading over $2 billion in operations for Afghanistan and Iraq and G8 Crime and Terrorism efforts). The fellow will be reaching out to those in attendance for ways he can use this background to help the students in attendance advance their own careers in politics and policy throughout the semester and beyond and for the specific topics and speakers they would like us to target for the semester.

Session 2:  Inside the Republican Contest and Issues that Will Decide the Presidency:  A Behind the Headlines, Off-The-Record Discussion with Vin Weber, a Top Adviser to Mitt Romney, Long-time Confidant of Newt Gingrich and One of Most Wide-Respected Figures in Washington.

Unexpected turns have already shaken the 2012 Presidential race as the rise of Occupy Wall Street and questions surrounding Bain Capital have taken a race many thought would be about jobs, jobs, and jobs and injected deeper questions about equality, the financial industry, class and opportunity.  In the weeks ahead, there will be undoubtedly more twists and turns as unexpected events drive new headlines, while some even more important issues that may lie lurking below the surface that could emerge before election day or fundamentally change policy and reshape our world after inauguration. This study group will allow us to talk to some of the top people who are shaping these decisions and glimpse ahead to an election that will undoubtedly impact students’ future wherever they venture after Cambridge. 

There is perhaps no better person to provide this perspective than our guest, former Congressman Vin Weber, one of the widely quoted and deeply respected “wise men” in Washington on both sides of the aisle who has served as a top strategist and advisor to Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty and many of the other top national political figures. This session will look at how the policy debates have shifted in the wake of the early primaries and preview the major battles the study group will prepare to engage in the weeks ahead and how emerging political terrain will change the debate. Which candidates have survived and what are their policy priorities and differences?  How has President Obama’s campaign shaped the debate or reacted to the issues raised in the primaries so far? How with the upcoming primaries shape the terms of the debate and impact the overall election?

Confirmed:    Former Congressman Vin Weber, Romney 2012 Adviser, 2008 Policy Chair
                             

Session 3: Neocon, Realist, Pragmatist--Where Will 2012 Lead a Volatile World?

The top state sponsor of terrorism is by some estimates months away from a nuclear weapons capability. The Middle East—the source of much of the world’s energy--is undergoing the greatest upheaval in a half century. The world’s longstanding top economic and military superpower, United States, may be on a path to be surpassed by a rising authoritarian state that may have very different views on how the world should operate. Meanwhile polling shows Americans have reached near record levels of a desire to “go our own way” and “mind our own business” in terms of foreign entanglements. These are just a few of the challenges a candidate must thread as he or she develops a vision or philosophy of confronting the world. Having dealt directly with these types of challenges for several first time presidential candidates, they are among some of the most difficult and complex for candidates to grapple with and ones where the specialist advisors chosen by a candidate can have a major impact on the global stage. What are the candidates’ visions?  Whom do they view as models or guides in navigating this tough terrain? What are the top handful of policy approaches and priorities that would change on day one with each presidential challenger? What will the consequences of policy shifts mean for the world and students’ future?

Potential Invitees: Leading Republican and Democratic Presidential Foreign Policy Advisors
                                                           
Session 4: U.S. Wars—Will They End, Will We Start Another With Iran and What Will Be Our Military Future?

As America prepares to reduce its presence in two wars and U.S. leaders look to address our large budget deficit, defense spending has been both a prime target for budget cuts and a major source of 2012 controversy over the impact of those cuts on the security of America and the world. How will the United States redefine its defense mission and fund that mission in the future?  What are the impacts of potential cuts both on the U.S. economy and national security?  How will the cuts impact the men and women currently serving in the military and the veterans injured during their earlier service? What areas should be prioritized or preserved if the defense budget shrinks? What are the candidates’ plans for helping veterans returning to the civilian workforce in the midst of high unemployment? The main differences in campaign policies on military issues and how they are likely to impact U.S. policies after 2012 will be examined in a discussion with campaign advisers and defense budget experts.

Potential Guests:  Leading Republican and Democratic Presidential Advisers

Session 5:  Foreign Policy Issues that Could Upend the Campaign—and Where the Campaign Could Have a Major Impact on Our World

In both Presidential Campaign and key Administration positions, I have seen major foreign events come out of the blue that have fundamentally redefined campaigns and altered the fate of our country, ranging from evacuating my office while watching the aftermath of a plane hitting the Pentagon from the top floor of the State Department on September 11th to watching a Presidential candidate’s chance of victory collapse as they fail to respond to a crisis. Many of these are unpredictable or will be shaped by events leading up to the election. Based on both events and student interests, this session (and perhaps one or more side events) will focus on some of the major foreign policy events and issues that could either reshape the campaign or be fundamentally reshape our world based on who wins the Presidency and/or control of Congress in the months ahead.

Option 1: Rising China and Asia: 2012’s Proposals to Address These New Economic, Trade and Security Challenges to America and the World.

For the first time in most students’ lives, America faces the risk that its days as the world’s greatest economic power are numbered. And this challenge comes from a nation that while often a friend of the United States on many matters, is governed by an authoritarian regime that sometimes takes stands on human rights, freedom, fair trade and other issues that stand in sharp contrast with those advocated by America and most existing powers. Navigating these issues many not only be key to the future of competitive jobs in America for today’s graduates, but whether campaign rhetoric places on a course for increased conflict, economic and even potentially military, that could threaten direction and even the stability of our current global system. How will the campaigns address Asia’s rise in a way that builds shared prosperity while confronting a political environment where U.S. citizens face economic stress and a lack of jobs at home? Can China’s regional ambitions regarding Taiwan, the South China Sea and elsewhere be resolved without new conflicts involving the United States and its regional allies? Will China’s elections and tensions over issues like piracy with the U.S. give rise to a stronger nationalism in both nations raiding the risk of great conflicts? Who are the key players in the different Presidential camps and how are they likely to shape these issues?

Option 2 (or Separate Event with Wael Nawara): Middle East—Arab Spring, Oil and Iran

There is no region that has experienced more turmoil, yet remains more central to the global economy and energy markets than the Middle East. It has shown a history of impacting Presidential politics, as seen in the Iranian hostage situation, that helped lead to the defeat of an incumbent President and the victory of an opposing ticket that would control the White House for more than a decade. Today, the threat of war or dramatic changes in the balance of power caused by Iran’s nuclear ambitions (along with a number of potential, unexpected outcomes from the “Arab Spring” or new terrorist attacks from the region) could fundamentally alter not only the Presidential election but the course of history. How should America deal with this critical region, energy policy and Iran’s nuclear threat? What are the Presidential candidates’ positions and how do they impact the likelihood of war over the Iranian situation?  How are the candidates prepared to deal with the risk of fundamentalist or anti-Israel regimes coming into power in Egypt or in other traditional allies of the United States? Under what circumstances would America feel compelled to reassert itself in Iraq and what are the consequences of different proposed policies? What major groups of U.S. voters are likely to impact the candidates’ positions on these issues?

Option 3:  Latin America, Hispanic Americans and Immigration

The United States is deeply linked with Latin America, and the region’s issues, combined with the rising impact of the Hispanic Americans on U.S. politics, will have a major impact on our elections and U.S. policy in 2012 and beyond. Immigration issues and policy proposals such as the Dream Act have already become major issues for the campaign, and ones that have very different impacts with different constituencies and in different parts of the country. Sources of major changes and instabilities in the region, including Mexico’s drug challenges and the rise of several anti-U.S. leaders in places such as Venezuela and Bolivia, will be discussed. As in the other options discussed above, rapid changes in region, such as a change in leadership in Cuba or new headlines concerning immigrants (such as the coordinated surge of Cuban citizens setting out by boat to seek refuge in the United States in the 1990s) could have a major impact on the election and future U.S. policies. What are the candidates’ positions on permanent citizenship or residency for those currently in the United States? How should the frequent call for changes in our legal immigration policy be addressed? How should the United States deal with Cuba, Venezuela or other nations challenging U.S. policies in the region? What priority should be given to fighting the illegal drug and criminal organizations that could destabilize allies and threaten violence that could cross our borders? What is the candidate’s vision for trade and sparking new, more positive relations with partners in Latin America? How do they plan to improve outreach to and engagement with the millions of Hispanic Americans whose votes could determine the outcome of the election and control of the Congress?

Potential Invitees: Leading Republican and Democratic National Security Advisers

Session 6:  Reversing a Global Economic Meltdown and Avoiding a Lost Generation of Graduates—Ideas to Address the Financial Crisis and Reinvigorate the U.S./Global Economy.

Perhaps no one has a longer-term stake in the 2012 election than college age students—and the campaign’s outcome and its ramifications about U.S. spending, debt and taxes will likely have long-term impacts on their generation. On a more immediate basis, students face the risk of becoming part of what some have termed a “lost generation” as they have recently faced an environment of few jobs and stagnant economic growth with the burden of student loans. What are the candidates’ plans to revive opportunities for students and prevent this risk of a lost generation?  How should young voters think about the trade-offs between programs targeting near term jobs and those fighting the long-term debt issues they could face? How do the candidates plan to address student loans and the lack of opportunity raised by many young people in the Occupy Wall Street Movement? This session will explore these issues with some of the leading thinkers and advisors to presidential candidates to help frame the 2012 issues that may most directly impact students following graduation.

Potential Guests:        Leading Republican and Democratic Presidential Advisers

Session 7: 2010’s Wave, Independents and The Tea Party—Still Driving 2012 and beyond?

Less than 24 months after President Obama’s and Congressional Democrat’s landslide election, the Tea Party arose as a new political force and the 2010 election delivered a new wave that brought the Republicans to power in the House of Representatives. As the chief of staff to the first Senator elected in this wave—who became the deciding vote in the Senate that determined the fate of much of the President’s agenda from the Dodd-Frank Financial reform to the end of Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell—the fellow was both at the center of how this wave was altering the power dynamics in Washington and involved in how it came to further upend much of our politics in 2010. This session will draw on the fellow and others involved in the center of this change to look at how it is shaping the policy environment: What sparked the Tea Party political movement and what impact will it have on the 2012 primary and general election dynamics?  Who leads the Tea Party and what are its prospects for the future? What are the main issues it will seek to advance in terms of domestic and foreign policy? How much of the 2010 result was driven by the Tea Party and what are the issues for non-Tea Party independents in the run up to the 2012 elections? Overall this session will look at the genesis and evolution of the Tea Party movement and the other forces behind the wave election of 2010, as well as their future and impact on 2012. Potential speakers include both some of the political figures most involved in the 2010 wave or associated with the Tea Party, as well as pollsters or political analysts who have tracked this phenomenon.

Invitees: Senator Scott Brown and His Top Staff
                             

Session 8:  Making the 2012 Call—Predicting the Elections and Global/Market Impact

After having examined the major policy debates and issues at stake in the 2012 elections, this session would bring together some of the top political and political risk forecasters to look at the probability of likely outcomes and how those outcomes would likely impact the U.S. and global markets and economic recovery. Time would be devoted to discussing the roles of pollsters, political forecasters and political risk/policy analysis firms and how they develop their estimates and projections. Scenarios that students and the country could face after 2012, such as President Obama’s reelection combined with Republican control of the House and Senate, would be discussed in terms of what that would likely mean for U.S. policy, bipartisan cooperation and potential market reactions. This session would wrap up the discussion of the major issues analyzed during the semester. It would allow students to look at how these issues and their thinking have evolved over the course of the study group and how the dynamics are likely to play out in the months heading up to the election.

Potential Guests: Top Republican and Democratic Media Figures and Prognosticators