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The US is committed to promoting freedom and democracy around the world. President Bush reiterated this objective in his second inaugural speech in 2005 and has subsequently singled out the Middle East in particular where freedom needs to be pursued anew. The emphasis on democratizing the Middle East followed the 9/11 terrorist attacks, when the administration defined 'a forward strategy of freedom' as the means to address the root causes of terrorism. The study group will consider whether this emphasis of transforming Muslim countries through liberal democratic systems is likely to be achievable and sustainable in the longer term.

Starting with an examination of the concepts of liberal democracy and freedom through the filter of US foreign policy, the discussions will look at case studies across a range of Islamic countries to test the practical implications of this commitment. We will look at whether Islam itself is inimical to liberal democracy or are the structural relationships between state and society impediments to progress. We will also look at the practical problems of how the West responds when free and fair elections deliver leaders who are a threat to democracy and western interests. Finally, we will conclude with proposals for democracy that focus less on elections and more on social change and incremental 'institution building'.

Session 1: US foreign policy and democracy promotion; an overview

The United States historically used a combination of approaches towards Islamic countries: support for authoritarian regimes where 'stability' was preferred to democracy; sanctions or military action against others which were seen as a threat to Israel or itself; and support for undemocratic regimes to further its economic interests. Since 9/11 however, calls for democracy and freedom in the Middle East have become far more strident, not least to justify the ‘war against terrorism’. This session will examine the approaches to see whether the change in strategy represents a coherent and enduring shift in purpose.

Speaker: Dr Stefan Halper, Fellow Magdalene College. Cambridge University and Senior Fellow of the Centre for International Studies. Co-Author 'America Alone: The Neo-Conservatives and the Global Order' (2004) Session 2: Liberal Democracy and Constitutionalism

Support for elections has become the byword for reform on the part of Western governments, yet most Islamic countries do not possess the underpinning framework which promotes multi-party contests reflecting ‘the will of the people’ – the standard for whether elections are free. In the absence of the rule of law, due process, an independent judiciary, political parties, freedom of expression and independent media, democracy can have perverse outcomes. This session will examine key elements of constitutional liberalism to assess whether they have transferred to Islamic settings.

Speaker: Kishwer Falkner plus guest (tbc)

Session 3: Political Islam and democracy; conceptions of Islam and democracy

Theocratic state structures and political Islam appear to be the main impediments to progressive, reforming change in Islamic countries. Is political Islam all pervasive or do the compromises involved in practical statecraft moderate and shape governance, even when radical Islamists are elected? Is Islam per se incompatible with democracy and pluralism or can it adapt to modernity and liberal conceptions of freedom and human rights?

Speaker: Professor Bassam Tibi, Goettingen University and Cornell University, author of 'The Challenge of Fundamentalism' (2002).

Sessions 4: Case studies of Egypt and Algeria

Egypt has had authoritarian rule since the 1960’s, yet is considered a staunch ally by the United States. Why, when democracy is the catchword, are human rights abuses, repression and an almost complete lack of political freedom as seen in Egypt not challenged by pro-democracy enthusiasts?

Algeria had elections in 1991, when Islamists were elected in the first round. The military intervened to prevent the free elections from going ahead. A bloody civil war ensued until a civilian government returned to power in 1999. The first free elections were held in 2004 and the country has slowly moved towards democracy. Are there lessons to be learnt about how not to do it, and how promising is its future? Guest Hugh Roberts, Director Middle East, International Crisis Group, Egypt.

Session 5: Iran

Iran underwent a religious revolution in 1979 since when it has been ruled as a theocracy where power is predominantly held by a Council of Mullahs. As the first example of a working Islamic state which has experimented with a form of Islamic democracy, Iran presents a challenge for reformers and modernists. What does the Iranian example tell us about the future for Islamic democracy? Is it likely to follow a more reformist path?

Guest Professor Vali Nasr, Senior Fellow at the Council of Foreign Relations, Visiting Professor Stanford University, Author Democracy in Iran (2006)and the Islamic Leviathan: Islam and the Making of State Power (2001).

Session 6: Pakistan

The only Islamic state which is a nuclear power, Pakistan presents a challenge in terms of security and stability. In its 60 years of independence, it has lurched from military dictatorship to civilian rule, and back again, with an apparent inability to embrace democracy in any meaningful way. Yet civil society exists, as do press freedoms and a relatively independent judiciary. Is General Musharraf’s benign dictatorship still the best option for the West, or would free elections result in Islamists being returned to power? Are Pakistan’s institutions capable of evolving, or is the country destined to be a near failed state?

Speakers (tbc):Hussain Haqqani, Journalist and Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for Peace and Professor Ayesha Jalal, Tufts University

Session 7: Malaysia and Indonesia

Malaysia a former British Colony with an ethnically diverse population, is one of the most economically dynamic countries in the Muslim World. However, its success is often attributed to circumscribed nature of its democracy with a relatively authoritarian ruler for twenty years, dominance by one party and limited press freedom or judicial independence. Indonesia, the world’s most populous Muslim country has had a sustained period of civil unrest and political strife since its inception in 1950, and has had military rule by Generals for prolonged periods. It started democratic reforms after civil unrest in the late 1990s and has held free multiparty elections in 1999 and 2004. As both these South East Asian countries try to forge an accommodation between Islam and secular institutional structures, we will assess to what extent their trajectory provides a useful example for other Muslims to follow.

Guest TBD

Session 8 and conclusion: Prospects for the Future

Evidence does not suggest that the Islamic world is embracing Western-style democracy. In the current circumstances, would a more realistic objective for US foreign policy be to support a broad 'good governance' agenda with a joint emphasis on constitutional reform and institutional building? Should this be combined with support for universal suffrage and incremental steps towards multi-party elections from grassroots levels? This session reviews the evidence gathered over the 8-week study group. Kishwer Falkner, with guest speaker Richard Hass, President, Council on Foreign Relations (tbc).