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A STUDY GROUP LED BY FALL 2008 IOP FELLOW,
AMBASSADOR MALEEHA LODHI
WEDNESDAYS 4-5:30 PM, L166

Pakistan, the world’s sixth most populous nation and second largest Muslim country, is today at the crossroads of the pressing issues of our time: terrorism, extremism, development and democracy. As a nuclear armed, pivotal state, Pakistan’s stability is crucial to regional and global security. Its management of stability and governance, and relations with neighbours India and Afghanistan, have consequences not only for the region, long afflicted by strife and poverty, but for the international community. In equal measure, global geopolitics and regional developments also impact the country and determine Pakistan’s ability to establish peace and stability.

This study group will examine key issues of global importance from the perspective of Pakistan’s relations with the United States and its neighbours, India and Afghanistan, in the post 9/11 world. It will bring together leading practitioners and experts in foreign policy, the media and the security services to discuss these issues.

Study Group No. 1
Wednesday 1 October

Pakistan’s pivotal status: How geography and history shaped its security paradigm and influenced its political evolution.
Located at the intersection of the world’s most volatile regions, South and Central Asia and the adjacent Middle East, Pakistan has had to face complex and enduring security dilemmas. While geography has imparted geostrategic significance to Pakistan, it has also been an imposing challenge because of the burden of contested borders inherited from colonial rule. The problem of insecure borders has been compounded by the impact of shifting global geostrategic concerns and great power interests, frequently casting Pakistan into a “frontline state”.

How did this confluence between global geopolitics and Pakistan’s security preoccupation influence its political evolution and social stability?


Study Group No. 2
Wednesday 8 October

Challenges in Pakistan US relations after 9/11
9/11 led to a new phase in relations between the two countries, historically characterised by cycles of engagement and estrangement. The episodic nature of these ties reflected the changing global environment and Washington’s shifting priorities.

How far did the latest embrace mark a break from the past? Has the relationship been more tactical than strategic, given the two countries often different strategic concerns? Is the current mutual frustration inherent in differing priorities and unrealistic expectations of one another?

Guests: Robin Raphel, former US Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia and Robert Granier, former CIA station chief  in Pakistan (1999-2002).


Study Group No. 3
Wednesday 15 October

Consequences of Pakistan’s role as a frontline state
The overly military response to terrorism represented by the US intervention in Afghanistan and the Bush Administration’s subsequent policies created unprecedented strains in Pakistan. What has been the fallout of this strategy on Pakistan’s  security and politics? What have been the economic and political costs of Pakistan’s role as a frontline state? Has the interplay between domestic and external factors turned Pakistan into one of the most dangerous places in the world, and among the toughest countries to govern?

Guest: General Ehsan ul Haq , former Director General, Inter Services Intelligence Directorate and former Chairman Joint Chiefs Staff Committee.


Study Group No. 4
Wednesday 22 October

The US role in the Indo-Pakistan military standoff in 2001-02
In the initial stages of the US-led “war on terror” Pakistan and India came perilously close to conflict in 2001-02, when militants attacked the Indian Parliament and Delhi mobilized  thousands of troops on the border with Pakistan. Could a nuclear exchange have taken place when the two militaries were locked in eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation? Was it effective US diplomacy or nuclear deterrence that deescalated the dangerous military standoff between the two countries ?

These questions will be explored from the perspective of the historical and current dimensions of Pakistan–India relations, as well as the triangular interaction with Washington. The goal of this discussion is to understand the dynamics of one of the oldest sources of conflict in the world, now being played out in a volatile, nuclearized environment.

Guests: Torkel Patterson, former director at the National Security Council, who dealt with the crisis at the time.


Study Group No. 5
Wednesday 29 October

The Kashmir dispute: can a resolution help change Islamabad’s security imperative?
The 61 - year old dispute between the two nuclear neighbours over Kashmir has been the core cause of regional tensions. The dispute has curtailed huge costs, both in terms of instability as well as human suffering. Can the current peace process between Pakistan and India help to overcome a longstanding impasse, pave the way for Pakistan to change its security paradigm and deliver the peace dividend in a region mired in unacceptable levels of poverty? How much accommodation can India show, taking a longer term perspective of the benefits of such a paradigm shift for the region? Would placing the Kashmiri leaders at the centre of diplomatic efforts facilitate an acceptable solution?

Guest: Mir Waiz Omar Farooq, Kashmiri leader and chairman of the All Parties Hurriyat (Freedom) Conference.


Study Group No. 6
Wednesday 5 November

Pakistan and Afghanistan: Uneasy neighbours and the imperative of cooperation
The Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship, rooted in a history of suspicion and complicated by contention over the Durand Line, is critical to regional stability and the success of global counter-terrorism efforts.

What strategies were employed by the US following the 2001 intervention in Afghanistan to stabilize the region? How far have these efforts been effective ?  The complex triangular relationship between Pakistan, Afghanistan and the US, will frame  discussion of issues of terrorism, extremism and development.

Guest: Ambassador Munir Akram, former Pakistan Permanent Representative to the UN.


Study Group No. 7
Wednesday 12 November

From  frontline  state to battleground
The prolonged conflict in Afghanistan has increasingly spilled over and spread across Pakistan’s border regions mostly inhabited by Pashtuns who straddle the porous frontier between the two countries. The growing threat of ‘Talibization’ of swathes of the Tribal areas and the North West Frontier Province has so far been met by a combination of military action and peace deals with local tribes aimed at isolating the militants. How effective has such a  counter-insurgency strategy  been in reversing the tide of militancy? How does the special status of the Tribal areas inherited from British imperial rule impact on the operation of these policies?
      This session will  examine the intricacies of Pakistan ’s relations with its Tribal areas in the context of Washington’s assessment that the principal source of the global terrorist threat is now located in this border region.


Guest: Zahid Hussain, journalist (Newsweek, The Times of London, The Wall Street Journal) and author of ‘Frontline Pakistan’.  


Study Group No. 8
Wednesday 19 November

Future outlook and implications for the next US Administration
The February 2008 general elections set in train the transition from military rule to democracy. This raised hopes and expectations that Pakistan would be able to re-establish stability and be better able to address economic challenges and defeat extremism and terrorism. This study group will discuss future scenarios as Pakistan’ s ability to establish stability, promote economic development and address internal security challenges will crucially affect regional stability as well as have implications for  the US-led global campaign against terrorism. Washington’s role in Pakistan’s  political transition has been a source of much debate and controversy in the country. How will this external factor influence the course of events in Pakistan?

Can Pakistan break out of the cycle of military rule and weak civilian governments it has been trapped in for so long ?