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STUDY GROUP LED BY IOP FELLOW STEPHANIE CUTTER

Day: Wednesdays
Time: 4:00-5:30PM
Location:  Faculty Dining Room (FDR)

Watch Stephanie Cutter’s study group introduction

Call it a crisis, call it a scandal, call it the turning point in every campaign, in every White House, and in the life of virtually every public official.  It’s the moment when public opinion can shift in a split second over something as small as a misstatement or as looming as sexual misconduct.

President Obama was almost derailed by his preacher’s racist comments.  However, Senator George Allen—who was expected to be the republican nominee for president-- was, in fact, derailed by his own racial insensitivity. Bill Clinton survived an affair in the Oval office with an intern and enjoys stratospheric approval ratings.  Yet, John Edwards was drummed out of politics over his affair and is widely reviled publicly.

If managed effectively, a political crisis can be little more than a bump in the road of a long career. But if bungled, a political scandal or a crisis of confidence can turn an election and impact history, rob a public servant of his ability to govern, and even end a career.  

The goal of this study group is to study the evolution and management of key political crises historically and in the context of the frenetic 24/7 modern media environment.

We will examine the monumental crises that shaped history, as well as monitor current events to identify a new or emerging crisis that will provide the study group with real-time insight into crisis management


September 23:  “The Monica Lewinsky Scandal and Its Impact on Today’s Crisis Management”
Although the Monica Lewinsky scandal broke more than a decade ago, even today it looms large in the minds of campaign strategists and White House officials in terms of “lessons-learned” in the management of a crisis.  In a historic first, the story began to break on Wednesday, January 21, 1998 when The Drudge Report reported that Linda Tripp had told investigators Monica Lewinsky claimed she kept the “blue dress.”  Drudge told the same story the next day on the Today Show.  Introducing Drudge on Today, co-anchor Matt Lauer described The Drudge Report as "a media gossip page known for below-the-Beltway reporting.” Lauer asked Drudge if he had any confirmation.  Drudge answered, "Not outside of what I've just heard, but I don't think anybody does at this point."  Michael Isikoff was on the same show, and his reaction was "I have not reported that, and I am not going to report that until I have evidence that it is, in fact, true," he said. "I've heard lots of wild things, as I am sure you have. But you don't go on the air and blab them." Reflecting a turning point in the relationship between Internet “news” sites and mainstream media, ABC’s Jackie Judd confirmed and reported on the news of a dress that Friday and had two sources.  She was “vilified” for several months, and then was later proved right in July.   The management of the Lewinsky scandal involved a sitting President, a special prosecutor, the emergence of Internet news, a significant partisan divide between the White House and Congress, and a relentless news media.  

Invited Guest:  Adam Nagourney, Chief Political Writer, New York Times
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September 30:  Overview by Fellow 
(Due to guests’ schedule constraints, the overview will be given during the second session.)
One’s ability to effectively manage a reputational or policy crisis is becoming increasingly difficult in a multi-media platform world where newspapers are no longer the primary force determining day-to-day news.  With Internet, cable and other new media competing with each other every hour of every day, a never-ending news cycle is propelled not just traditional news but by a competitive bottom line that can quickly turn a brushfire to a wildfire.   It’s no longer as easy to contain a story, prevent the spread of rumor and innuendo from filtering into the news medium, or change the subject.  
The study group will examine the elements of a personal, political or policy crisis, including 1) an event or issue that causes a candidate or official to stumble; 2) the role of media in contributing, or even creating a crisis; 3) the decisions made by officials and senior staff to address, or ignore, a crisis; and 4) how those outcomes affected the ability of the individual at the “eye of the storm” to win election or govern. 

Speaker:  Fellow


October 7:  “Swift Boats and the Role of Non-Mainstream News”
When Swift Boat Veterans for Truth held their press conference in May 2004, it gained little media coverage.  By August, they had raised enough money to spend $500,000 to air ads in Ohio, West Virginia and Wisconsin.  Although it was a small ad buy, it became a Fox News and blogosphere sensation.  The Kerry campaign debated whether a candidate response would elevate the story to mainstream media,   In the two weeks it took the campaign to mount a full throated response, bloggers, talk radio and Fox News had examined the issue nonstop, causing mainstream media to put the controversy on front pages and to lead news casts with the Swift Boat story.

Invited Guest:  Bob Shrum, Democratic media consultant and Kerry senior strategist


October 15/October 21:  “The Role of Race and Associations in the 2008 Election”
The Obama campaign struggled with the associations of Barack Obama with one-time “terrorist” Bill Ayers and controversial minister Reverend Wright, while the McCain campaign worked over time to separate John McCain with inside Washington “lobbyists” and an unpopular president.  Both campaigns understood that these associations had the potential to derail the narrative of their candidate. 

In Week Four’s seminar, we will examine how Barack Obama’s association with radicals threatened to introduce him to a majority of Americans in a particularly un-American manner – dangerous for a Democratic candidate, let alone the first African American national candidate.   


In Week Five’s seminar, we’ll study John McCain’s challenge of distancing himself from “what’s wrong” with Washington – which was contrary to the “maverick” and “straight talker” image built over the course of decades despite his many years in the Senate.  

Invited Guests:

• October 15: Steve Schmidt, Senior Strategist, John McCain for President
• October 21:  David Axelrod, Assistant to the President, The White House

October 28:  “The 2008 Economic Crisis and the Test of Leadership”
While the economy was the number one issue throughout the 2008 election, it turned into a national crisis in the fall of 2008 with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the dramatic drop in the stock market and resulting financial instability, and the spread of the recession beyond America’s borders.  Although public opinion on concern over the economy had yet to peak, voters were watching how the presidential candidates handled the growing crisis.   It was a test of leadership.  As a young candidate with little experience, Barack Obama had to pass the test.   As a candidate who had years and a steady hand on his side, John McCain couldn’t afford to lose it.   After two weeks of crisis and constant media attention, there’s little disagreement among analysts and advisers that a fundamental shift occurred.

Invited Guest:   Dan Balz, Chief Political Writer, Washington Post, and author of best-selling Battle for America 2008


November 4:   “Controlling a Flu Pandemic without Fear and Panic in the Modern Media Environment”
Federal officials have been working around the clock to put plans in place to prevent a flu pandemic that could cost hundreds of thousands of lives.  Equally important is an effort to prevent panic among the American public in the modern media environment that documents with great detail every outbreak, hospitalization and death by the virus. 

This summer, more than a million Americans were infected with H1N1, the deadly strain of the flu virus, more than 5,000 were hospitalized, and more than 300 died.   The H1N1 flu virus continues to circulate in this country and in at least 100 other countries around the world – especially in the Southern Hemisphere, where flu season is underway. Scientists and public health experts forecast that the impact of H1N1 could worsen this fall, when the regular flu season hits and with the start of the school year.  

According to the New York Times, seasonal flus kill an estimated 250,000 to 500,000 people worldwide each year.  However, with the H1N1 strain, officials are concerned about greater lethality given the pace of contamination, the strength of the virus and potential shortfall of vaccinations.   With questions about adequate supplies of flu vaccines, experts believe it may not be vast enough to avert an epidemic and high rates of death if the virus starts to spread widely and become more virulent.  

The White House has responded aggressively and, so far, effectively to contain the outbreak, and the public’s response.   Whether its federal summits with high ranking health officials, public service announcements with Elmo, information distributed through the Department of Education to every school district in the nation, or periodic Internet and radio addresses by President Obama, the White House is leaving no stone unturned, no communications tool underutilized and no media report unanswered.  

Invited Guest:   Anita Dunn, Assistant to the President and White House Communications Director


November 18:  “What Makes a Good Crisis”
There are many “do’s and don’ts” critical to crisis management, such as hitting back or admitting wrong within a news cycle to blunt a story, identifying a flaw or charge equal or more harmful to your opponent, controlling information flow to news outlets, ensuring allies stay on message and quickly changing the subject.    In today’s partisan atmosphere and multi-media environment, it is hard to predict who will be successful in controlling a crisis and who will not.  Determining what is news or an ongoing storyline is often determined as much by nontraditional media as it is mainstream outlets.